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Fire EruptingTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 57.3% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.2% | +9.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.5% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.5 |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |